I had my second worst week of the season last week. I blame my getting worse on two things. One, I just don’t know anything. And two, we are getting down to nut cutting time, and the teams that should win are stumbling and the teams that shouldn’t win are showing some Moxy we didn’t know they had. It’s the great thing about college football.
The CFP released their latest top 25 rankings Tuesday, so I’ll be using those numbers with my picks. Of the 25, there are seven three loss teams, and of those, there are perhaps two or three that still have a shot at the CFP. But it would require winning all their remaining games. I’ve listed the CFP top 25 after my picks, and I’ve added their remaining opponents which allows you see who has the potential to grow their resume.
I picked 12 games this week with 4 being CFP Top 25 matchups. I marked five games as “Must See” due to the ramifications involved. Sorry Husker fans, but once again Nebraska is anything but a “Must See” game, that is unless you want to see if firing OC Dana Holgorsen accomplished anything at all.
Reminder – this year I’m listing games in two categories, “Must See” and “Of Interest”. They’ll be signified as follows:
Must See games: M
Games of Interest: O
Here are my 11 games for the week. Let’s get to it.
Friday, November 13
O Illinois 6-3 vs 4 UCLA 9-0
FOX 8:00pm
UCLA is riding high, but Bob Chesney and the Bruins better not underestimate Brett Beilema’s Fighting Illini. The Illini have won four of their last five games after firing their defensive coordinator. For most teams it would be a major hurdle to get over, but Beilema has built a culture at Champagne that believes they can win. QB Katlin Houser is better than he’s given credit for, passing for 1,955 yards, 16 TDs, and 5 interceptions on the season. It helps that the Illini’s wide receiver room is underestimated. Collin Dixon is one of the better receivers in the Big Ten with 68 receptions for 910 yards and 12 TDs. Bob Chesney took over UCLA implementing the Curt Cignetti plan. There were doubters but it’s hard to ignore a 9-0 start. Even more impressive, Chesney has done it after losing his starting QB, Nico Iamaleava. Backup QB Ty Dieffenbach took over during game five and hasn’t looked back. But he hasn’t done it alone. He’s supported by a good running game in Wayne Knight, 6.2 yards per carry and 13 TDs, and a defense that has made 50 TFLs, 20 sacks, 17 interceptions, and has 10 fumble recoveries. I want to pick Illini with the upset, but I can’t.
Win Probability – UCLA 77.4%
Las Vegas Odds – UCLA -10.5, O/U 48.5
OTC’s Pick – UCLA
Saturday, November 14
M Duke 7-2 vs 7 Miami 8-1
ABC 11:00am
This is a big game in the ACC for multiple reasons. It’s the first time the two teams have met since QB Darian Mensah bailed on the Blue Devils and went to Miami and both are in contention for the ACC championship. Manny Diaz has done an exceptional job at Duke but replacing the production of Mensah is next to impossible. Mensah has passed for 2,694 yards, 28 TDs and 2 interceptions with a 76.8% completion rate in 9 games for the Canes. Without Mensah Diaz turned to RB Nate Sheppard who has rushed for 1,189 yards and 17 TDs, while adding 32 receptions for 306 yards and 4 TDs. Meanwhile Miami only allows 64.3 yards rushing per game. The big question is, will Miami have a hangover from the loss to Notre Dame, or will they come in looking to prove a point feeling robbed in South Bend. For the record. I thought it was a TD.
Win Probability – Miami 81.1%
Las Vegas Odds – Miami -13.5, O/U 54.5
OTC’s Pick – Miami
O Northwestern 6-3 vs 20 Ohio State 6-3
FOX 11:00AM
Northwestern fans had high hopes for this game before QB Aidan Chiles was injured. Chiles missed the game against Iowa and is more than likely out for this game, making the Wildcats a different team. The Cats have had a strong running game this season and you can bet Chip Kelly will come up with something just for Ohio State. OSU fans are unsure what they will see from the Buckeyes after a demoralizing loss to Oregon. They have lost two of their last three games and if Indiana’s Nick Marsh had gotten a foot down, they would have lost all three. It’s the Buckeye defense that has betrayed them, giving up an average of 380 total yards and 28 points per game over the last three. There was visible frustration among the Buckeye players after the loss to Oregon and there is speculation Ryan Day has lost this team.
Win Probability – Ohio State 81.5%
Las Vegas Odds – Ohio State -12.5, O/U 45.5
OTC’s Pick – Ohio State
M 13 Wake Forest 8-1 vs SMU 7-2
ESPN 11:00pm
This is one of the best games of the week, even though SMU is nowhere to be found in the top 25, which is a little surprising because they’re in the running for the ACC championship. Their problem, both of their losses were to the best teams on their schedule. They have no head-turning wins, although that could change with games against Wake Forest and Notre Dame. SMU’s success runs through QB Kevin Jennings, who has passed for 2,764 yards, 25 TDs, and 6 interceptions. He’s also rushed for 132 yards and 2 TDs. The Ponies are looking to get back to the CFP and a win against the Demon Deacons points them in the right direction. Can you say, team? That’s what Wake Forest is. While they have playmakers, it’s difficult to point to one individual and say, that’s the guy. QB Gio Lopez has taken good care of the ball, with 18 TDs passing and 1 interception. Offensively the Deacons average 488 yards and 43 points per game. Defensively they allow 310 yards and 16 points per game. Their only downfall of the season, a 13-point loss to Miami in the first game of the year. But other than the Canes, SMU will be their biggest challenge thus far. Wake Forest is strong against the run, weak against the pass. SMU is better at passing the ball than running the ball.
Win Probability – SMU 50.5%
Las Vegas Odds – Wake Forest -1.5, O/U 61.5
OTC’s Pick – SMU
O Nebraska 5-4 vs Rutgers 2-7
BTN 11:30AM
This game is the first I’ve listed where one team had a losing record. Rutgers has one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten this season. The Scarlet Knights give up an average of 412 yards and 32 points a game. Defensively over 9 games they only have 35 TFLs, 11 sacks, 5 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries. And yet, defensive minded head coach Greg Shiano was told earlier this week he would be back for another year. Offensively QB’s Dylan Lonergan is out, and AJ Surace is questionable. Together the pair has passed for 1,889 yards, 18 TDs, and 11 interceptions. More than likely the QB will be sophomore Sean Ashenflder. On top of that the Knights will be without talented WR KJ Duff. That leaves them with RB Antwan Raymond who has rushed for 789 yards at 5.3 yards per carry and 6 TDs while having 15 receptions for 181 yards. Sounds bad until you say Nebraska has lost their last four games in a row and just fired their offensive coordinator. Fans are in disbelief over how the Huskers lost four consecutive games. Now they are unsure if their team can win another game. The Blackshirts had their worst game as a defense last week against the Illini. The hope is they will rebound and the offense behind Glenn Thomas finds a way to score points.
Win Probability – Nebraska 82%
Las Vegas Odds – Nebraska -13.5 O/U 52.5
OTC’s Pick – Nebraska
O Michigan 5-4 vs 16 Oregon 6-3
FS1 2:30pm
This game was on my list before the season started. Obviously, it has lost some of its luster. But Oregon still has an outside shot at a Big Ten championship and another loss by Kyle Whittingham will cause even more discontent in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have had problems trying to figure out who to play at QB, fielding both Bryce Underwood and Tommy Carr off and on. Between the two they’ve passed for 7 TDs and 9 interceptions in nine games. A loss last week to in-state rival Michigan State prompted head coach Kyle Whittingham to fire offensive coordinator Jason Beck. The Wolverines one real strength – defense, only giving up 265 total yards a game. Oregon was upset early against Oklahoma State, which raised questions about the Ducks. They bounced back with a big comeback win over USC, but in doing so lost QB Dante Moore for the season. Backup Dylan Raiola then had a horrible outing against UCLA for a 17-15 loss. The third loss came to a good Illinois team who rushed for 255 yards against the hapless Ducks. Oregon has since climbed back into contention with wins over Northwestern and Ohio State.
Win Probability – Oregon 78.7%
Las Vegas Odds – Oregon -11.5 O/U 38.5
OTC’s Pick – Oregon
O Missouri 6-3 vs 1 Georgia 8-1
ABC 3:30pm
Missouri is another one of those 6-3 teams that has hopes of stumbling into the playoffs, and if they were to post wins over Georgia, Kentucky and Oklahoma it wouldn’t be unrealistic. But Kirby Smart has Georgia properly motivated after an upset loss to Auburn. The Dogs were never challenged last week by Ole Miss, winning 42-7 and out rushing the Rebels 295 yards to 66. QB Gunnar Stockton is having a good season, throwing for 1,857 yards, 20 TDs, and 4 interceptions while rushing for 233 yards and 4 TDs. The Bulldog defense is stout, with 60 TFLs, 31 sacks, 8 interceptions, and 9 fumble recoveries. Missouri is powered by QB Austin Simmons who has thrown for 2,204 yards, 18 TDs and 2 interceptions. He has a good supporting cast in RB Jamal Roberts and WR Cayden Lee. And the Tiger defense will keep the Black and Gold hanging around.
Win Probability – Georgia 85.5%
Las Vegas Odds – Georgia -15.5 O/U 47.5
OTC’s Pick – Georgia
M 18 USC 7-2 vs 9 Indiana 8-1
CBS 2:30pm
Sshhh, don’t tell anybody but Big Ten commissioner Tony Pettiti is nervous. He’d love to get three if not four Big Ten teams in the playoffs. The thought is Indiana would still make it in with two losses and if USC wins out over Indiana, Maryland, and UCLA, they could sneak in too. But not so fast my friend. We saw the committee drop the Hoosiers five spots last week due to their strength of schedule. And being ranked No. 9, that line of thinking makes this a must-win game for Indiana. This isn’t the same Indiana squad from last season, barely defeating Northwestern, Nebraska, and Minnesota. But with QB Josh Hoover, Lee Bebe, along with WRs Nick Marsh and Charlie Becker the Hoosiers are still a national champion caliber team offensively. Notice I didn’t mention RB Turbo Richard. He’s out. The Hoosiers have a strong run defense only allowing 75.6 yards rushing a game and registering 76 TFLs, 32 sacks while taking the ball away 9 times. Lincoln Riley’s Trojans are somewhat of a mystery, losing to a down Oregon team and an improved but not great Wisconsin team. In fact, their best win is over Ohio State, who is also down. But Riley’s LA teams have always had one Achilles heel – defense. Giving up an average of 346 yards and 24 points a game. QB Jayden Maiava will attempt to make up for it. Maiava has passed for 2,524 yards, 20 TDs and 5 interceptions. He has a trio of dangerous receivers in Trent Mosely, Zach Williams, and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt. Between the three they have 85 receptions for 1,299 yards and 11 TDs. I see this one as a Hoosier defense versus a Trojan Offense. The problem, the cold weather only effects the sunshine boys from LA.
Win Probability – Indiana 77.4%
Las Vegas Odds – Indiana -10.5, O/U 50.5
OTC’s Pick – Indiana
O 19 Ole Miss 6-3 vs Oklahoma 5-4
SECN 3:15pm
I added this game because it was on my list before the season started, and while Ole Miss could end up at 9-3, they are a longshot to move up in the rankings due to their remaining schedule. OU, Wofford, and Mississippi State won’t move the needle. Head coach Pete Golding isn’t under fire, but if the Rebels miss the CFP with Trinadad Chambliss at the helm it’ll be noted. OU knows they have already been eliminated but they still would like to finish strong and a win over Ole Miss at home would keep Brett Venables off the hotseat. The Sooners have been up and down all season, so much so they recently fired their OC. With wins over Texas and Florida and losses to Michigan, Georgia, Kentucky and South Carolina, Venables has taken heat. A win here goes a long way for both coaches.
Win Probability – Ole Miss 50.8%
Las Vegas Odds – Olle Miss -1.5, O/U 49.5
OTC’s Pick – Ole Miss
M 6 Texas 7-2 vs 21 LSU 6-3
ABC 6:30pm
There aren’t many teams with three losses that still have a shot. LSU is one of those teams due to who they have left on their schedule and who they lost to. With three more wins over Texas, Tennessee, and Arkansas, and their losses being against Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Alabama, the CFP committee might just sneak them in. However, they don’t have a signature win up to this point. That starts with the Tigers looking better than they did against Alabama. QB Sam Levitt has carried this team offensively with 2,553 yards passing, 340 yards rushing, 25 total TDs, and 9 interceptions. It’s that last number that hurts the Tigers. They tend to lose games in which Levitt gives the ball away. After early losses to Oklahoma and Florida the Longhorns have redeemed themselves with good showings against Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Missouri. Much of the credit can be given to QB Arch Manning who has passed for 684 yards, 6 TDs, and 2 interceptions over that three-game span. He’s also had tremendous help from the Longhorn’s rushing defense. They’ve only allowed an average of 88 yards and 0 TD’s rushing over the last three games. They haven’t faced many mobile QBs, so it remains to be seen how they’ll handle Levitt. The other important key to a win, keep Manning upright. The Longhorns have given up 27 sacks this season and LSU may be the most talented defensive team they’ve faced. This is a big game for Kiffin. There were high expectations coming into the season.
Win Probability – LSU 64.1%
Las Vegas Odds – LSU -8.5, O/U 52.5
OTC’s Pick – LSU
O 2 Utah 9-0 vs 23 Arizona 7-2
FOX 6:30pm
Because I looked at Utah’s schedule early on and thought it was soft I’ve underestimated them most of the season. I thought Houston and BYU would both get wins over the Utes. That didn’t happen. The difference maker – QB Devon Dampier. The talented QB has passed for 2,053 yards, 20 TDs, and 7 interceptions while rushing for 482 yards and 7 TDs. Utah averages 215 yards per game rushing. Much of that can be attributed to Dampier. He had a total of 256 yards and 4 TDs rushing against Houston and BYU. Defensively the Utes aren’t overwhelming, but they’re ball hawks with 17 interceptions in 9 games. What Dampier is to Utah, QB Noah Fifita is to Arizona. Fifita has passed for 2,794 yards, 21 TDs, 7 interceptions with a 73.0% completion rate. He’s also rushed for 135 yards and 4 TDs, which doesn’t sound impressive until you consider he’s been sacked 22 times. That stat will play a role in this one. The Wildcats are still in the running for the Big XII championship and a win against Utah keeps them very much alive in the CFP hunt.
Win Probability – Utah 55.8%%
Las Vegas Odds – Utah -2.5, O/U 54.5
OTC’s Pick – Utah
M 10 Texas Tech 8-1 vs 25 Oklahoma State 6-3
ESPN 8:30pm
This is a “Must See” game for a couple of reasons. One, it’s the latest game on the schedule, so what else would you be watching. And two, it’s easy to look at this game and call it an elimination game. If Tech loses this one the rest of their schedule doesn’t get them in the CFP. For Okie State it would mean a fourth loss. Nobody is getting in with four losses. The Cowboys are longshots ranked at No. 25 with games remaining against Texas Tech, Arizona State and Kansas. But Eric Morris has them on the right track. Bringing QB Drew Mestemaker, RB Caleb Hawkins, and WR Wyatt Young with him from North Texas State has been a game changer for the Cowboys. Mestemaker has passed for 2,962 yards, 29 TDs, and 8 interceptions. He’s also rushed for 177 yards and 3 TDs. If the Cowboy’s defense was at the same level as their offense, they’d be real trouble for the Big XII. Tech has come around offensively the last two games with Thomas Castellanos at QB. He averaged 253 yards passing, 108 yards rushing, and 4 TDs in the last two outings. It’s the Tech defense that has struggled giving up an average of 506 yards and 37 points against Arizona and West Virgina.
Win Probability – Oklahoma State 60.9%%
Las Vegas Odds – Oklahoma State -3.5, O/U 72.5
OTC’s Pick – Oklahoma State
For week ten I went 5-6 on straight up picks, not taking the spread into account. So now I’m 58-45 for the season. In week nine I ignored the numbers and went with my gut and got my butt kicked. In week ten I tried to follow the numbers but let my gut convince me to go with Virgina Tech, BYU, and Minnesota. Which were all wrong. This week I probably did more of the same, following the numbers until my gut had something to say.
CFP Top 25 Week 11
Note: Boise State at No.24 would be the Group of Six automatic qualifier, making Kentucky the last team in and *Texas Tech the first team out.
- Georgia (8-1) Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia Tech
- Utah (9-0) Arizona, TCU, West Virgina
- Alabama (7-2) Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, Auburn
- UCLA (9-0) Illinois, Michigan, USC
- Notre Dame (8-1) Boston College, SMU, Syracuse
- Texas (7-2) LSU, Arkansas, Texas A&M
- Miami (8-1) Duke, Virgina Tech, Boston College
- Tennessee (7-2) Texas A&M, LSU, Vanderbilt
- Indiana (8-1) USC, Washington, Purdue
- BYU (7-2) Baylor, Kansas, Cincinnati
- Kentucky (7-2) Florida, Missouri, Louisville
- *Texas Tech (8-1) Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU
- Wake Forest (8-1) SMU, Georgia Tech, Duke
- Houston (7-2) Colorado, West Virginia, Baylor
- Iowa (7-2) Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska
- Oregon (6-3) Michigan, Michigan State, Washington
- South Carolina (6-3) Arkansas, Georgia, Clemson
- USC 97-2) Indiana, Maryland, UCLA
- Ole Miss (6-3) Oklahoma, Wofford, Mississippi State
- Ohio State (6-3) Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan
- LSU (6-3) Texas, Tennessee, Arkansas
- Missouri (6-3) Georgia, Kentucky, Oklahoma
- Arizona (7-2) Utah, Kansas State, Arizona State
- Boise State (9-1) Oregon State, San Deigo State
- Oklahoma State (6-3) Texas Tech, Arizona State, Kansas
GO BIG RED!! SIMPLE, FAST, VIOLENT!!
Art worked designed and owned by Lyle Harmon and ‘Off the Cob’.
Stats gathered from ESPN – Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.
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