The Rutgers game will be defining for head coach Matt Rhule’s career at Nebraska. Lose this one and the whole narrative changes. It isn’t good now but losing to the worst team in the conference will raise a ton of questions about where Nebraska is as far as a program.
Rhule must find a way to win against Rutgers, and then perhaps knock off Ohio State or Iowa. If he does that, he’s bought himself another year as head coach.
Lose all three, and Troy Dannen holds Matt Rhule’s future in his hands. I don’t think Dannen will fire Rhule, it reflects too poorly on him for extending Rhule’s contract. But he will have demands that will force Rhule to either concede or take a lesser buy-out to move on.
What kind of demands? The kind that Trev Alberts made, forcing Scott Frost to relinquish play calling and hire Mark Whipple. The kind that says step back and be a CEO. Stop the ranting on the sideline, don’t talk so much and win back the fans.
So, Rhule’s time at Nebraska and what that looks like moving forward should be a little clearer come Saturday night.
Rutgers is Good for a new Play Caller
It’s hard to say when Rhule truly decided it was time to move on from Dana Holgorsen. Perhaps it was on the flight home from Champagne. But the timing couldn’t have been better with Rutgers next on the schedule.
Now don’t take me wrong. This game isn’t a given for Nebraska. Especially considering where this team’s head might be. It’s clear looking back now that Indiana was the game of the season for this Nebraska team. They haven’t been the same since, and things have snowballed because of it. It’s why you never want to point to one game and build your season around it.
So, the question now is can they rebound. Do they have enough left to put another win together and build on it.
Glenn Thomas couldn’t draw a better team than Rutgers to start calling plays as Nebraska’s offensive coordinator, because Rutgers has one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten this season.
The Scarlet Knights give up an average of 412 yards and 32 points a game. Over 9 games they only have 35 TFLs, 11 sacks, 5 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries. They give up an average of 186 yards per game rushing. That’s key for a Nebraska team that wants to reestablish its running game.
It’s a bit puzzling because Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano is a defensive minded guy. And Schiano, thought to be on the hotseat, was told earlier this week by his AD he would be back for another season.
Nebraska’s new play caller has a lot of work to do. He’ll want to get the running game going but one of the first things he’ll need to work on is eliminating penalties. It’s killed Nebraska this season.
The second thing for Thomas will be disguising what the plays are. Nebraska hasn’t been good at hiding formations and deceiving defenses as to what the play might be. Part of that is due to which running back is on the field. Nebraska has tell-tale tendencies with each running back making them easier to defend.
Unlike Holgorsen, Thomas will not be looking to make the perfect play call. He’ll ask the offense to run the play he’s called regardless of the look they are given by the defense. It’s about being confident of the play you’re running and executing. Not second guessing.
The scheming or play calling will not be different. What will be different is the sequence of the plays. What is called when – early in the game or late. With Holgorsen it was only using the run to set up the passing game. With Thomas it’ll be about establishing the run to set up play action passes later. With Thomas there will be a whole different rhythm of the offense, and he’ll try to establish the run and sneak in play-action passes.
Thomas will also call plays at the start that will make Anthony Colandrea comfortable. Over the last four games Colandrea has developed happy feet. We’ve seen when pressured it changes how he plays.
He’ll need to slow down and trust his teammates, meaning there can’t be any pressure on him early when he is in the pocket. If he gets hit or sacked in the first quarter, it affects him for the rest of the game.
It causes him not to hang on to the ball long enough to allow his receivers to get open. And he hasn’t done a good job of dumping the ball off to his safety valves. He gets happy feet and runs.
With Rutgers having the worst rush defense in the Big Ten and Nebraska will be attempting to reinvigorate their running game, look for the Huskers to have their best game of the season running the ball.
Nebraska’s top three running backs consist of Jamal Rule who has 88 carries on the season for 582 yards, 6.0 yard per carry average and 5 TDs, followed by Mekhi Nelson with 78 carries for 348 yards, a 4.5 yard per carry average and 5 TDs, and finally Isiah Mozee with 52 carries for 260 yards, a 5.0 yard per carry average and 1 TD.
Quarterback Anthony Colandrea has run the ball 84 times for 381 yards, a 4.5 yard per carry average and 4 TDs.
Nebraska has outgained their opponent in yardage in all four of their losses this season and a 5 to 4.5 yard per carry average isn’t bad. I look for the Huskers to move the ball against Rutgers, but they must put points on the board at the end of drives.
Rutgers Versus the Shorthanded Blackshirts
For Rutgers, quarterback Dylan Lonergan is out, and backup AJ Surace is questionable. Both have played off and on this season. Together the pair has passed for 1,889 yards, 18 TDs, and 11 interceptions. If Surace can’t go, more than likely it’ll be sophomore QB Sean Ashenfelder. He’s seen action in three games this season going 3-of-10 for 50 yards.
Besides possibly playing a third string QB, the Knights have lost talented wide receiver KJ Duff. Duff finished his season with 45 receptions for 774 yards and 9 touchdowns. Over his three seasons as a Scarlet Knight, he’s registered 132 receptions for 2,283 yards and 17 TDs, and 17.3 yards per catch.
With his absence that makes 6’0”, 190-pound Ben Black the number one target with 16 receptions for 265 yards and 2 TDs on the season. Beside him will be 6’1”, 200-pound Jourdin Houston who has 18 receptions for 264 yards and 1 TD. Both receivers average 15 yards or better per catch.
Rutgers biggest weapon coming into the game will be running back Antwan Raymond, at 5’11”, 205-pounnds, he’s rushed for 789 yards at 5.3 yards per carry and 6 TDs while having 15 receptions for 181 yards.
Running back Clay Thevenin who is 5’8”, 195-poiunds also had 90 carries on the season for a 5.3 yard per carry average and 5 TDs.
It should also be noted that starting right guard 6’2”, 310-pound Kwabena Asamoah is out due to injury.
It’s hard to envision, but the Blackshirts will need to prevent explosive plays from the Knights offense which averages 220 yards passing, 143 yards rushing and 26 points per game. They are capable of big plays.
Rutgers isn’t the only team that has its share of injuries. The Blackshirts will not have three of their best players. Defensive end Anthony Jones Jr. is still out and now linebacker Owen Chambliss and cornerback Andrew Marshall are listed as out.
While the loss of all three hurts, Owen Chambliss not being on the field is gigantic for Aurich. Known as the ‘General’, his loss was noticeable against Illinois.
Without Chambliss linebacking duties will be left up to Vincent Shavers, Dexter Foster and Dawson Merritt. Aurich indicated that 6’1”, 225-pound junior Derek Wacker will also get substantial time in the rotation.
Unfortunately, safety Dwayne McDougle III is listed as questionable. McDougle is Nebraska’s leading tackler with 55 on the season. He also has two interceptions, 1 of which he returned 80 yards for a TD.
Junior Rex Guthrie is listed on the depth chart behind McDougle.
For the season the Blackshirts allow an average of 190 yards passing, 90 yards rushing, and 17 points per game. They’ve registered 60 TFLs, 25 sacks, 7 interceptions, 6 forced fumbles and 3 fumble recoveries on the season.
Aurich spoke earlier this week about making critical stops and taking the ball away more often. Even shorthanded I look for the Blackshirts to show up for this game.
Outcome
This game isn’t about what Rutgers does, it’s totally about what Nebraska does. They must build confidence and bring back some swagger on both sides of the ball.
Nebraska must start strong out of the gate, establish a rhythm on offense and make shut-down plays on defense. They can’t let Rutgers hang around. That would be ideal for Rutgers and bad for a Nebraska team that has collapsed at the end of games.
Ramifications with a loss here are beyond troubling. With this game Nebraska needs to get back on track and build some momentum before meeting Ohio State at home.
GO BIG RED!! SIMPLE, FAST, VIOLENT!!
Photos courtesy of the Falls City Journal Home – Falls City Journal – Falls City, NE
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